The base rate: a quiet correction to instinct
Launch library · evergreen read
A base rate is simply how common something is in general, before any specific new information is factored in, and ignoring it is one of the more common and consequential errors in everyday reasoning, since a rare event described vividly can feel far more likely than its actual underlying frequency would justify.
A dramatic anecdote, a single striking case, tends to override a more boring base rate in most people's intuitive judgement, even when the base rate is, statistically, the far more reliable guide to how likely something actually is to happen to any particular person in any given circumstance.
Deliberately asking how common a described event actually is in general, before reacting to how alarming or memorable the specific story sounds, is a small, quiet correction that tends to produce noticeably steadier, more accurate judgement across a wide range of everyday decisions and assessments. This is one of those areas where showing up consistently outperforms any clever shortcut.