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Progress literacy

The recency illusion: why now always feels worst

Evergreen read · 1 min read · Evidence type: Trend line

Photograph: Green Hills (47953211626)
Photo: Green Hills (47953211626) by Jay Huang from Pleasanton, USA (CC BY 2.0), via Openverse

The recency illusion is the tendency to believe that whatever is happening right now, good or bad, is unusually severe or unprecedented, simply because it is the thing currently in front of us, while similar or worse episodes from decades earlier have quietly faded from collective memory.

This illusion is reinforced by the fact that living memory genuinely does fade: a difficult period twenty years ago is remembered, if at all, in vague outline, while the difficulty of the present moment is experienced in full, vivid detail, which makes an unfair comparison feel entirely natural to make.

Correcting for it usually means deliberately consulting a longer record rather than relying on memory or gut feeling alone, since a chart stretching back several decades often reveals that the current moment, however difficult, sits well within a range the past has already lived through before. That distinction is easy to miss at first glance, yet it changes the picture considerably.

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