How Good Is Life is published by Sukh Sandhu Pty Ltd LibraryContact
How Good Is Life sun markHow Good Is LifeGood news, with evidence.
Progress literacy

Distinguishing correlation from a shared cause

Evergreen read · 1 min read · Evidence type: Trend line

Photograph: Green Hills (47953211626)
Photo: Green Hills (47953211626) by Jay Huang from Pleasanton, USA (CC BY 2.0), via Openverse

Two things rising together does not mean one is causing the other. Ice cream sales and drowning incidents both increase in summer, not because ice cream causes drowning, but because a third factor, warm weather, drives both independently. This kind of shared cause is one of the most common traps in reading any statistic.

Spotting it requires asking a simple question: is there a plausible reason the first thing would directly cause the second, or is there a more obvious factor that would explain both at once. Often, a little thought reveals a shared cause sitting quietly behind two figures that look, at a glance, like they must be connected.

This is not a reason to dismiss every correlation, since some genuinely do reflect cause and effect. It is a reason to treat a correlation as a starting question rather than a finished answer, and to keep looking for the mechanism before accepting the more dramatic explanation.

Share

Sharing opens the network in a new tab. No tracking scripts are loaded on this page.

Printed from How Good Is Life, howgoodislife.com.

NEXT IN PROGRESS LITERACYHow uncertainty ranges keep forecasts honestRead next →